Starting in fifteen to twenty-five years: large scale solar power.
Starting in fifteen years: fuels produced by bio-engineered organisms. But we’d better have construction underway by then of those new coal and nuclear power plants. Starting in five years: cars that run on batteries, re-charged from the grid (often called plug-in hybrids). Starting now: conservation measures upgrades of the power grid to make it more efficient and more intelligent (Cue Lynne Kiesling) new coal and nuclear power plants. My personal views on the alternative energy technologies that will yield the best returns on investment for implementation (not counting research, which needs to be done up front): I think it would be very lucky if we were to see an average of doubling every two years for twenty years. If they do come up with such a solution, then the use of solar power should start doubling faster.
At some point, if folks do not come up with a scalable, efficient solar energy solution, the use of solar power is going to stop doubling every two years. This is a case where I have a hard time believing an autoregressive model. At that rate we’ll meet 100 percent of our energy needs in 20 years.” Doubling every two years means multiplying by 1,000 in 20 years.
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